Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 15.057 18.676 20.325 22.959
ratio_of_sd 0.831 0.925 0.888 0.841
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.588 0.701 0.646 0.581
maximum_error 0.329 0.339 0.308 0.302
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.495 0.154 0.228 0.328
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.973 1.259 1.286 1.208
qqplot_mae 0.032 0.039 0.042 0.042
acf_mae 0.128 0.062 0.090 0.106
extremogram_mae 0.109 0.030 0.052 0.063

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 15.975 19.366 20.981 24.201
ratio_of_sd 0.850 0.948 0.902 0.852
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.589 0.703 0.651 0.581
maximum_error 0.342 0.354 0.323 0.320
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.510 0.194 0.178 0.343
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 1.002 1.294 1.315 1.244
qqplot_mae 0.032 0.041 0.043 0.044
acf_mae 0.131 0.060 0.094 0.104
extremogram_mae 0.106 0.037 0.054 0.064

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 11.555 15.918 16.316 19.591
ratio_of_sd 0.865 0.952 0.923 0.876
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.603 0.737 0.693 0.609
maximum_error 0.335 0.346 0.322 0.309
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.485 0.159 0.165 0.328
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.968 1.256 1.270 1.205
qqplot_mae 0.027 0.033 0.036 0.036
acf_mae 0.134 0.060 0.087 0.105
extremogram_mae 0.099 0.024 0.042 0.057

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric xgboost cnn lstm naive
diff_of_means -14.565 -15.289 -16.518 -17.812
ratio_of_sd 0.938 0.941 0.992 0.864
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.781 0.860 0.908 0.663
maximum_error 0.284 0.264 0.295 0.335
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.202 0.119 0.076 0.531
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.805 0.848 0.836 0.704
qqplot_mae 0.039 0.039 0.035 0.057
acf_mae 0.130 0.115 0.086 0.173
extremogram_mae 0.045 0.024 0.014 0.080

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 7.742 9.041 13.846 15.356
ratio_of_sd 0.853 0.959 0.898 0.886
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.609 0.775 0.726 0.616
maximum_error 0.339 0.403 0.353 0.290
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.496 0.153 0.160 0.293
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.924 1.133 1.185 1.140
qqplot_mae 0.025 0.021 0.030 0.028
acf_mae 0.144 0.071 0.086 0.115
extremogram_mae 0.086 0.020 0.028 0.058

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 0.673 2.575 6.338 8.413
ratio_of_sd 0.899 1.004 0.950 0.938
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.632 0.819 0.782 0.659
maximum_error 0.321 0.361 0.334 0.278
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.565 0.167 0.161 0.324
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.893 1.093 1.136 1.094
qqplot_mae 0.020 0.013 0.018 0.015
acf_mae 0.158 0.079 0.092 0.122
extremogram_mae 0.107 0.024 0.037 0.067

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric naive lstm cnn xgboost
diff_of_means 7.345 9.426 13.505 16.281
ratio_of_sd 0.901 0.977 0.942 0.898
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.612 0.742 0.708 0.588
maximum_error 0.333 0.376 0.352 0.294
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.507 0.223 0.202 0.352
rainy_hours_ratio_of_means 0.950 1.154 1.218 1.185
qqplot_mae 0.020 0.022 0.031 0.030
acf_mae 0.140 0.086 0.090 0.125
extremogram_mae 0.094 0.035 0.040 0.059

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97